One giant pile-on
The radio squawks at me on my ride to work each day about the economic upturn. Our melliflous but not-well-rehearsed local NPR guy offers median home prices, retail sales and unemployment numbers as evidence. See! He seems to be saying. The sun is shining! Things are getting better!
James Altucher wrote an article about this for the Wall Street Journal on June 4th and it was packed full of impressive charts and bar graphs and data points. The man loves himself some data. Of course, data comes as a result of very specific questions and those questions can be—and, in fact, generally are—framed to elicit the desired outcome. No, I’m not cynical. I’m experienced. Okay, and maybe a little cynical, too.
Speaking of jobs, Altucher described the obvious signs of our Improving! Economy!:
“…in the most recent employment data (out just this morning), it looks like hours worked are up, the unemployment rate is down, and nonfarm payrolls improved over April. In particular, hourly pay is up, implying overtime, and always a precursor to fulltime employment.”
Things are definitely rosy for Altucher. Unlike the 35 journalists at the San Diego Union Tribune who lost their jobs last Thursday, who still has a job.
Well, memo to Altucher: Where I work, people are being laid off every week. Those who are not laid off are picking up the workload of those who have been and are working more hours to get the job done. At the same time the workload has increased, there’s been a mandatory reduction in pay, one off-set (to a small degree) by mandatory furlough days. At least there’s that extra day off each month-ish to help the bitter pill go down. But rumor has it, the furlough program will be ending in the coming months while the reduced pay will be made permanent.
I know two groups of nurses, several of them 20-plus year employees, who were laid off in recent weeks. They were graciously invited to re-apply for their positions, jobs now listed at demoted titles and—big surprise—lower pay scales. An entire department of web content editors was let go last month, several of them being notified by phone while they were on maternity leave. Their work has been distributed directly to the departments being serviced, departments who’s staff has been similarly decimated. I know one woman who works 10-hours of unpaid overtime every single week because she can’t get her work done in a 40-hour week. But she doesn’t dare speak up because she needs this job, one of three she holds down. She hasn’t had a day off in 3 years. And the title I currently hold has been re-defined to add more responsibility, require less credentialing and offering lower pay (the salary has been slashed by thousands of dollars). And I’m not any where near a high income earner. I cannot move up, ever, because I’m already above the new “up,” and while there are no raises in the future for most employees, if there were, there would be none in mine.
So, in a way, Altucher has it partly right: People are working. Some people. And those who are working, are working: We need our paychecks. And holy shit do we need our health benefits. But the-hourly-pay-is-up thing is not something I’m witnessing at my place of employment, nor is it something I’m hearing from friends in other fields and at other organizations. I’m highly skeptical about this “improving economy” and think that for most of us, it’s going to be getting harder and more stressful.
How about you, readers? Are you experiencing the relief the pundits like to yammer about? Do you feel safe and secure and bright and sunny about your future? Or do you think that Altucher should find some place to stick his bar graphs?
TENSE AND NERVOUS? CAN’T RELAX? F##k yeah. My mother-in-law decided to move to Canada. Old folks moving to freezing Canada??? F##k yeah: economically sound and a few things like health care. I’d like to take my dog for a walk down George W’s street so he can leave a wee token of my affection on his lawn….
A friend of mine’s mom was a nurse for 30 years. Dedicated, amazing, incredible. She had worked her way up to a managing position and was well loved by the staff- she also continued to do a few shifts with critical care patients to stay connected to what she loved about being a nurse. One day she was called in and…fired. Sort of. Then invited to reapply for a part time position. Her position was filled by 2 part time women in their early 20s just out of school. She, very unlike her, flipped them off and walked out.
What is stopping us from returning to the US right now- what I really long to do- is job security.
In the meantime I fear for so many of my friends and family back home, some of whom are wondering week to week if they will still have a job. They are all- btw- in social services, medical settings and teaching.
You can make those numbers say anything you want them to. Those numbers are wearing pants that are aflame!
I live in an area where I think we’ll feeling the economic downturn a little less than some folks, but I wouldn’t say the economy is good. A few months back, friends were telling me the economy was good because the stock market was getting better and they even bought a house.
I guess I go by people having jobs and homes, both of which it sounds like people are struggling to keep. I’ve also heard of people out East having their work week cut short.
So, no, in my opinion it’s not getting better. I think people need to quit looking at pretty numbers and save what they can because I don’t think things are going to be rosy for a while.
I don’t see things getting better in my neck of the woods. My husband was laid off from his crap retail job and is struggling to find another – no one’s hiring. My job’s stable but I’m plotting to re-work my title & job description if I can so that I don’t get capped at the top of my pay scale. We’re experiencing hiring freezes and our budgets have been seriously cut. My friends in social services haven’t seen state funding in months though the demand for their services grows; they’re losing paid hours or having their hours cut. Teachers are losing their jobs . . . national guardsmen are called away from their full-time non-salary jobs and then not paid.
I too know people are working harder for less money. In a normal market people would express their discontent by leaving, but this isn’t a normal market and they’re not because there are no jobs to go to. I’m in that category myself. So, employers are getting away with treating people like shit. I am a born cynic, so I believe many of them are doing OK profit-wise but the ‘economy’ reason is trotted out to justify cutting staff and forcing those who remain to work harder. Because that means more profit.
My manager was made redundant in February and since then I have been working much more intensively. The targets we had as a ‘team’ (of me and her) have not been adjusted downwards. So we’re trying to achieve the same target with a staff capacity of probably 40% reduced.
Because I’m in Europe I can afford to be a little more Marxist about my job. They can’t force me to do overtime. If they want to fire me there would need to be a better reason than that they felt like it. It would need to be either pegged to performance (in which I am not lacking and even if I were it would probably take 18 months to run the disciplinary process) or a business-justified redundancy. Seeing as my role is to BRING IN money and I bring in more than I cost by a factor of 28, it would be pretty hard to justify getting rid of me.
I really feel for workers in the USA at the moment because whatever I am going through is peanuts compared to that. I have the NHS, and a bunch of labour laws that mean it will take a long time to fire me and if it happens there is a benefits system to fall back on (it’s not much, but you wouldn’t starve or need to sleep in a car). Sometimes, our employee-protective labour laws can mean people who are shit at their jobs are VERY hard to get rid of and that’s a pain. But right now, I am SO glad we have them because if we didn’t, the situation would be so much worse for the workers.
I’ve been officially unemployed for 18 months, since being laid-off in January 2009. I actually started my job search back in August 2008 because I saw the writing on the wall. I’ve had interviews and been a final candidate for a handful of positions, but have received no offers, thus far.
The main problem I’ve encountered is the reduction or near elimination of middle-management positions. The work is redistributed to entry level positions which pay less and for which I am wildly over-qualified and not considered. Not that I’m really interested in more work with less support for less pay. I deserve to be adequately compensated for the experience, skill set and education I bring to the table.
The other option is to apply for executive-level positions, for which technically I am qualified, but in today’s rotten economy, I am competing against more experienced candidates who have been downsized out of their jobs and are now also glutting the market.
What few position between entry- and executive-level that are posted receive hundreds and hundreds of applicants, even over the course of only one week. It has been–and remains–rough out there.
There has been a slight uptick in the number of jobs to apply for, but that’s small comfort. My access to COBRA health benefits expires at the end of July, at which point I will have to pay even more $$ out of pocket to cover private health insurance, unless I find a job by then.
I am one of four third-round candidates currently in consideration for a position and am waiting to hear whether or not I am one of the two invited in to interview with the Executive Director, before an offer is made. It’s nerve-wracking, to say the least.
But I need to make three job contacts a week in order to get unemployment benefits, and there have been some weeks when that was supremely difficult because there were no appropriate positions posted. That will be the best thing about finding a job–no longer having to wonder every week whether I’ll be able to submit enough applications or schedule interviews. I am SO OVER the job search, already!!
I don’t know. Maybe you are experienced. But I’m looking at various slices of data across the whole economy. You’re telling me anecdotally about 25 jobs that were lost. I hear you. Its tough out there. A lot of people I know are losing jobs or are unemployed and they are in pain. But, across the economy, jobs are a lot better than where they were a year ago. And i’d rather be moving in a positive direction than a negative one.
wow. I’m glad I’m in graduate school. seems like a good place to hang for a bit. hang in there my friends!
I see the same thing you are seeing. My company has been through some layoffs already, with those of us left picking up the extra work. And being told, “be happy you have a job” while rumors fly that there are more to come. My boyfriend lost his job in January 2008 and has been taking temporary jobs trying to find something permanent. No luck so far, and in those 2.5 years we have used any and all savings we had to try to keep afloat, just to have it all come crashing down anyway.
I am still unemployed after 18 months. I have gotten to the point that I am applying for any job with benefits no matter how low paid (ie. $10.00 per hour.)
The more important note is, my husband is an Employment Lawyer. His work has suddenly dried up. That is a bad indicater, the last time it dried up was when everything first went south! We are very nervous. He was doing a number of contract negotiations in addition to lot’s of severance agreements and now – nothing. Bad sign.
He has been listening to the indicators and he thinks we are in for another big dip in the economy. The housing prices and sales have been largely based on the incentives which are over and have not been renewed. And, as has been stated, those numbers can be skewed to say anything…so, like I said, nervous here.
Try entering the teaching profession right now. Or, if you’re smart, don’t. I’m lucky that I can afford to sub and get my Master’s. If I had to support myself I’d be in deep trouble.
I don’t believe that the economy is getting any better, either. Far too many people that I see and talk to are still looking for employment and those that are working are just desperate to hang onto their jobs.
I also don’t think that we’ve dealt with California’s budget crisis, yet. I think that is only just beginning to be seen and will get alot worse.
Housing is still really high and beyond the means of middle income earners.
Finally, I don’t believe that many of the issues that drove us into this situation have adequately been dealt with yet. I don’t believe that the financial crisis will actually get better until true solutions are found.
Thank you all for weighing in on my unscientific poll. The unease is too familiar.
@James:
I have to admit, I was shocked to see a comment from you. I’m so glad you took the time to leave it. Thank you. Obviously you are more well versed in economics than I am. You are a numbers guy, and I’m an emotional girl. And well…that can be a fiery combination, especially across the Internet when the emotional girl says angry things about the numbers guy, never in a million years expecting he might read what she’d written. Had I known, I might have excluded the picture of my lovely friend Katie. Or at least I would have put a dab of perfume behind each ear before you showed up.
All that being said, it seems like wall street and “main street” as it’s (regrettably) called are not as closely related as they once were. I’m with you on the underlying theme: I, too, long for things to move in a positive direction, desperately. And as a freelance writer (in addition to my recently-reduced-to-part-time day job as a clinical research coordinator), I should go back, underscore that sentiment, twice, and put a whole bunch of little hearts and stars all around it to transform it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s über-tough out there for a writer. You know?
The thing is, what I see around me at my place of employment, a university, does not reflect your happy stats. People ARE in pain and statistics are of little assurance when their loyalty is rewarded with demotions, furloughs, forced retirements, and layoffs of qualified personnel. Sure, my examples are anecdotal but they’re also endless.
I know what I’m hearing from friends and acquaintances, people who don’t work in high finance but in the fields of health care, teaching, social services, the tech industry, the bio-tech industry, non-profit organizations, I could go on. It’s not good. I do understand that you’re looking at a spectrum of data, but I would argue that data simply doesn’t tell the whole story. It doesn’t tell the story of people who are taking jobs beneath their skill sets because the jobs in the middle are evaporating. Or of people who are holding multiple jobs to make ends meet. Or of people who are working for free because they cannot afford to lose their health benefits by asking for their rightful overtime pay. Of of employers who have profits but are using the economic downturn against the worker. I can’t tell you how many times someone says to me, “I’m just thankful I have a job.” Certainly, you understand this piece was written out of a growing sense of frustration.
Which brings me to my last point: I don’t really want you to f*** off or suck on your stats. I’m sure you’re a lovely person. I get where you’re coming from and I want you to be right about it. I just don’t feel a recovery, even when I keep hearing it is out there. I don’t have a lessening sense of doom about my so-called career(s). These days, I am infrequently reassured about my future and mostly overcome by the sensation that I’m griping onto a single thread of Glide mint-flavored dental floss. Which is particularly slippery.
Again, thank you for taking the time to leave a comment.
How the hell did you find my post anyway? Did you do a vanity Google?